Mayville, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

500
FXUS63 KFGF 180515
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1115 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme cold conditions are expected to develop through
  Tuesday. Wind chills will get as low as 55 below in some
  locations, particularly colder spots up north.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Winds continue to slowly decrease across the FA late this
evening, and a lot of the cloud cover is also diminishing.
However, looking upstream, there are some higher thin clouds
pushing eastward across North Dakota. Some of these clouds
should move across this FA overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Let the Winter Weather Advisory go a little early, as
visibilities continue to climb. All the convective streamers
have finally disappeared off the radar too. So we are now
transitioning to the cold weather headlines for the next few
days.

UPDATE
Issued at 614 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Wind speeds are dropping across the FA, especially up around
Cando and Langdon. Webcams in that area show conditions have
really improved. That is not quite the case across Pembina and
Kittson counties, where visibilities are still up and down.
However, with the winds dropping, blizzard conditions will be
replaced by a few lingering convective streamers. So will
replace the Blizzard Warning across the far north with a Winter
Weather Advisory for a few more hours. The High Wind Warning
also expired at 6 pm, with the decreasing winds. If winds drop
faster than expected, may be able to let the Winter Weather
Advisory go a little sooner than 9 pm too. Will continue to
monitor through the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...Synopsis...

20z surface analysis indicates a very tight pressure gradient
across the Red River Valley with mesoanalysis indicating a
secondary push of cold air advection working its way south. This
is the tail end of this system and will begin to exit this
evening. Behind this system, perpetual northerly flow will bring
in the coldest stretch of the winter season. Intermittent
shortwaves shortwaves may bring chances for snow next week as it
appears that north to northwest flow will dominate through the
period.

...BLIZZARD AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY...

Conditions have improved dramatically along the secondary band
of cold air advection, likely due to desaturation from colder
air and pushing the profile out of the DGZ. This significantly
lowers the potential impacts from blowing snow HCRs. There
remains a stout band of blowing snow in northwest Minnesota
working its way southward ahead of it and it has created
sporadic conditions of whiteout. With wind gusts continuing to
push 50 mph, the expectation is for these conditions to remain
for the remainder of the day. The main question right now is
when conditions improve such that the Blizzard Warning is no
longer necessary. At this time, a few observations continue to
indicate whiteout conditions along the international border, so
for now we will continue as is through 9 PM.

...HIGH WINDS...

High winds continue to be observed down the Red River Valley. A
large amount of discussion was had on whether a High Wind
Warning or Winter Storm Warning was the choice here as the main
question is what was the biggest impacts. Ultimately, the wind
appeared to be the biggest impact so hence the highlighting with
a High Wind Warning.

A very strong jet is currently working its way southward through
the Red River Valley. With super efficient momentum transfer
ongoing, gusts will continue to approach 60 mph through the
remainder of the day. Thermal wind intensity does weaken with
time, so we would expect the wind gusts to diminish at least
below severe limits. For this reason, the High Wind Warning
expires at 6 PM.

...EXTREME COLD...

Behind this system, very cold temperatures are going to arrive
and last through midweek. For tonight, winds and cold air will
create hazardous wind chills to -39, with some isolated spots
hitting the -40 threshold. A Cold Weather Advisory has been
issued for this and continues through 6 PM Saturday. Once any
location hits the -30 criteria for advisory, it will stay there
through Tuesday. Overnight wind chills will fall into the -40s
and -50s, with some spots getting as low as -55 by Monday
morning. These dangerously cold wind chills are of very high
confidence, so an Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the
entire area, beginning at 6 PM Saturday (replacing the Cold
Weather Advisory) and continuing through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Wind speeds will slowly drop overnight, then pick up again by
mid to late Saturday morning. However, the Saturday wind speed
increase will be nothing like today, but more in the 15 to 25
knot range. Guidance is showing some low cloud (MVFR)
development by Saturday afternoon, somewhere in the SCT-BKN
range. Not sold on the BKN potential, so have gone with SCT
amounts for now.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Tuesday
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028-032.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Tuesday
     for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Godon